Ahead of state election results, it seems that investors wants to play on a safe side to avoid any losses from opposite outcome. That could be the main reason for the extreme pain and selling pressure we seen in equity market on Thursday.
After continues fall from $85, crude oil has started forming some base around $58-60 levels. Currently, price of crude oil is trading around $61 which is in fact is a booster dose for FIIs to again take a investment view in Indian Markets. But yes on the other side, Currency has again loosed almost Rs2 in last one week which is not good. Therefore, the situation can’t be assumed as a extreme positive one anymore, as it was one week ago. The relief rally of sharp decline in crude oil prices has been already reflected in market. I am referring relief rally to that buying when Nifty had recently made a top of 10940 on 3 December. So, it is merely possible to see some more relief rally in equity market, being backed by Crude Oil and Currency activity.
I believe next main component of whole market trend is now the outcome of Elections of Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. If results proved to strengthen the footprint of BJP, then it might boost confidence of investors in market. But in case results brings difficulty for the BJP, then market may face some stress and extended selling pressure.
For the outcome, only two working days are left for the investors. OPEC meeting on the matter of supply cut of Crude Oil is also in progress and will end after two days. Thus, you should assume that market may remain very volatile for next two days. And It is possible for traders to see Nifty declining close to 10500 levels easily.
Traders can try to give more attention to options strategy for next few days, rather than directly trading in Futures and Cash which is currently in risky situation.
Although, I personally feel that Nifty would remain in little consolidation around 10500 levels before elections outcome. However, because the trade will be taken by you, you should trade this market for next few days in accordance to your comfort level and capacity. Through above information, I have just tried to give you an idea on how and where market can trade for short-term.
I will be very grateful if you also share your strategy for next one week. It may help to other readers also of this blog. Just use comment box to share your one’s!
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