Stock Ideas for March 2019

bull bear

Elections are on the way and soon, we will have a clarity on who will form the Government this Year. BJP and Congress both are looking very strong and will give each other a tough competition. But if you see at what type of events have took place recently, i think BJP will definitely get some big benefit from it in Elections. Modi Sir has again proved that we (India) needs a strong leader and Personality like he is! In the market, all knows that under BJP Government rule, few Policy Decisions had a good impact on our economy. Whereas few other policy decisions also had only negative impacts on our Economy. But if you see, how he has successfully managed the situation after Pulwama attack, there would be some positive impact during elections on them (BJP Party).

After 4–5 days of Pulwama attack, the risk of any possible war fight between two countries had rose significantly. But after Abhinandan event and few media reports suggesting possibility that Masoor Azhar has been killed in Air attack, the matter could see loosing some of its heat.

From market participants point of view, both changes i.e 1) loosing heat of Pak-India tensions and 2) Improved condition for BJP Party for elections, are the good things. But at this stage of time, it is also not wrong to say that every possibility is still possible! It doesn’t takes even a day for the condition to get worsen. But, on the other hand, it might take couple of years to get improved.

For march series, it could be very easy to say again that market now will this time…….. would show some fresh breakouts at higher levels. But, remember that it all depends on how different investors takes and would read global and domestic issues, this month. But to take any chance in market, if could possible, i have figured out three stocks for any bet for next few days or say for March series. Out of them, one is a technical call and two others are value buy.

Firstsource solutions

Firstsource solutions

On blog, I have already given a buy call on this stock several times. For long-term, i have set a target of Rs 100 for this stock. Most of the times, the call given for short-term had made good profits. But several times, this stock has proved my technical analysis wrong also. But overall, it is a good stock from fundamental perspective, available from listed BPO firms.

Interesting point need to be noted here is that, due to selloff pressure in Midcaps and Smallcaps, this stock has also loosed all of its gain achieved in the previous year on the back of healthy margin and great jump in Net profit number. Attractive valuations and quality Management are the plus points of this stock. Sometimes, little issues on premium salary payout to board members had came up in open ( public), but management has clarified this thing and never let it to get changed into big one.

Overall, Firstsource solutions provides little safety as it is already trading around very lower levels despite of strong goodwill and operations. Additionally, price is also attractive at current levels. Therefore, from current levels of Rs 43-44, one can easily expect this stock moving towards Rs 47-48 in Short-term.

Apollo Hospitals

Apollo hospitals

In India, business of Medical services has already got turned into only the profit-motive business despite of a direct strong connection with Social Responsibility. Therefore, in Indian market, the scope of organised and well established brands of hospital chains is good with plenty number of available growth opportunities.

Taking a service or using any available health service of Hospital is not a want, it’s a need for our citizens. You can’t wait for the long time to go Hospital whether you have money for it or not. You will have to arrange money for it. But yes, it is true that some of the services of hospitals are just a want and not any need. Thus, it can be concluded that election period and liquidity crunch in economy may slightly affect the business Income of hospital. But it will not have any significant impact, in my view. Therefore, i assume that Apollo Hospital share doesn’t have any higher risk attached with it in Short term.

At current levels of Rs 1150-60, valuations of company looks attractive to me. Recently, we had heard some Pledge news in the share, which is the main reason for the present levels of stock. But company had clearly clarified on it and most probably, i don’t think share will have any bigger risk due to pledge holding. Company is generating positive Cash Flows and expects to improve pledge condition in coming months. But yes, for some chances, nowadays, pledged holding is one of the serious issues in market and we know how much it can impact share prices, like in recent ADAG Case. So, investors should not ignore any development relating to this matter.

Overall, whatever I know about this company, i think current level is a good area to initiate any fresh position in stock. In March series, it is easily possible to see levels around Rs 1240-50 in Apollo Hospital Shares.

Balrampur Chini

Balrampur Chini

In last few days, stock of Balrampur Chini has witness a strong momentum and has given few important and impressive breakouts on Charts.

Sugar Sector is in a great focus of Government and i hope….. will continue to remain in focus until the condition of sector sees some significant improvement. Promoting Export of Sugar to other countries and use of more Ethanal have been the two main steps took by Government to support sector and provide some opportunities to them.

Because Balrampur Chini is generating positive cash Flows, they have both capability and capacity to use these opportunities much before many other players in the same sector. So, for next 1-2 years, I believes this stock has enough potential to give one of the bestest return. But as the stock is already trading at 20-30 percent higher levels from its average price of last few months, we can’t take it as a attractive pick at current levels. Risk level is little higher after recent buying. But it doesn’t mean that it wouldn’t rise anymore.

On charts, level of Rs 142-144 seems as a next great resistance for the stock in Short term. If buying interest among midcaps and smallcaps continues to sustain for more days or period of time, it is possible that Balrampur Chini would also continue to move upward as the valuations are attractive for long-term.

As a support, level of 127-128 looks fine and can be taken as a Stoploss level also. Overall, from both technical and fundamental perspective, Balrampur China looks a good option at current levels.

 

Just to tell the reason for selection of these stocks, I selected these three stocks on the basis of how fast they can catch momentum in Short-term. Balarampur Chini is already in a good speed. And other two i.e Apolli Hospitals and FSL have good strength and capacity to catch any 10-15 percent rally in March Series. But remember, market will tend to remain in Volatile situation. So, use and set appropriate Stoploss levels and Target levels in your stocks. And try to avoid any higher risk stock/expensive stock at this point of time!



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